Cheltenham Festival trends from @Toonmick701 - IrishRacing7 Cheltenham Festival trends from @Toonmick701

Cheltenham Festival trends from @Toonmick701



(2.50 Tue) The Ultima Handicap Chase - 3m 1f

I have looked at 8 trends for this race, they are Age, Weight, Official Rating, Recent Runs, Last Time Out, Year Runs, Distance & Grade.

Age - 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8.
Weight - 7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-03 or less.
Official Rating - 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 148 or lower.
Recent Runs - 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 in 1 of their last 2 starts.
Last Time Out - 9 of the last 10 winners had run within the last 45 days.
Year Runs - 8 of the last 10 winners had 1 or 2 runs that year.
Distance - 8 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further.
Grade - 7 of the last 10 winners had previously run in a Graded Chase.

(5.30 Tue) The Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase - 2m 4 & 1/2f

I have looked at 8 trends for this race, they are Age, Weight, Official Rating, Recent Runs, Last Time Out, Year Runs, Year Wins & Distance.

Age - 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7.
Weight - 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11-01 or more.
Official Rating - All of the last 10 winners were rated between 135 & 142.
Recent Runs - All of the last 10 finished in the first 2 in 1 of their last 2 starts.
Last Time Out - All of the last 10 had run within the last 45 days.
Year Runs - 8 of the last 10 winners had 1 run that year.
Year Wins - 6 of the last 10 winners had won that year.
Distance - 8 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2m 2f or further.
(2.50 Wed) Coral Cup - 2m 5f

I have looked at 8 trends for this race, they are Age, Weight, Official Rating, Recent Runs, Last Time Out, Year Runs, Distance & Grade.

Age - 8 of the last 10 winners were aged between 5 & 7.
Weight - 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11-04 or less.
Official Rating - All of the last 10 winners were rated 153 or lower.
Recent Runs - 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 2 in 1 of their last 2 starts.
Last Time Out - 9 of the last 10 winners had not run for 31 days prior to winning this.
Year Runs - 9 of the last 10 winners had either not run or run once that year.
Distance - 7 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2m 2f or further.
Grade - 7 of the last 10 winners had previously run in a Graded Hurdle.


(4.50 Wed) Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle - 2m 1/2f

I have looked at 6 trends for this race, they are Weight, Official Rating, Recent Runs, Last Time Out, Year Runs & Year Wins.

Weight - All of the last 10 winners carried 11-05 or less.
Official Rating - All of the last 10 winners were rated 134 or lower.
Recent Runs - 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 2 in 1 of their last 2 starts.
Last Time Out - 8 of the last 10 winners had run within the last 32 days.
Year Runs - 8 of the last 10 winners had run at least twice that year.
Year Wins - 6 of the last 10 winners had won that year.


(2.10 Thu) Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle final - 3m

I have looked at 8 trends for this race, they are Age, Weight, Official Rating, Recent Runs, Last Time Out, Year Runs, Distance & Grade.

Age - 7 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 & 8.
Weight - 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11-04 or less.
Official Rating - 8 of the last 10 winners were rated 142 or lower.
Recent Runs - 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 in 1 of their last 2 starts.
Last Time Out - 7 of the last 10 winners had run within the last 32 days.
Year Runs - 8 of the last 10 winners had run once or twice that year.
Distance - 7 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2m 4f or further.
Grade - 7 of the last 10 winners had previously run in a Graded Hurdle.


(4.10 Thu) Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Plate - 2m 5f

I have looked at 7 trends for this race, they are Age, Weight, Official Rating, Recent Runs, Last Time Out, Year Runs & Distance.

Age - 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 & 9.
Weight - 9 of the last 10 winners carried under 11-00.
Official Rating - All of the last 10 winners were rated 147 or lower.
Recent Runs - 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 in 1 of their last 2 starts.
Last Time Out - 8 of the last 10 winners had a break of at least 27 days before winning this.
Year Runs - 8 of the last 10 winners had between 1 & 3 runs that year.
Distance - 9 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2m 3f or further.


(5.30 Thu) Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase - 3m 2f

I have looked at 8 trends for this race, they are Age, Weight, Official Rating, Recent Runs, Last Time Out, Year Runs, Distance & Grade.

Age - 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 7 & 9.
Weight - All of the last 10 winners carried 11-00 or more.
Official Rating - All of the last 10 winners were rated 134 or higher.
Recent Runs - 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 in 1 of their last 2 starts.
Last Time Out - 9 of the last 10 winners had a break of at least 24 days before winning this.
Year Runs - 8 of the last 10 winner had between 0 and 2 runs that year.
Distance - 9 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2m 4f or further.
Grade - 9 of the last 10 winners had previously run in a Graded Chase.


(2.10 Fri) Randox Health County Hurdle - 2m 1f

I have looked at 7 trends for this race, they are Age, Weight, Official Rating, Recent Runs, Last Time Out, Year Runs & Grade.

Age - 8 of the last 10 winners were aged between 5 & 6.
Weight - 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11-04 or less.
Official Rating - 9 of the last 10 winners were rated between 134 & 139.
Recent Runs - 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 2 in 1 of their last 2 starts.
Last Time Out - 8 of the last 10 winners had a break of at least 32 days before winning this.
Year Runs - 9 of the last 10 winners had either not run or only run once that year.
Grade - 8 of the last 10 winners had previously run in a Graded Hurdle.


(4.50 Fri) Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle - 2m 4 & 1/2f

I have looked at 9 trends for this race, they are Age, Weight, Official Rating, Recent Runs, Last Time Out, Year Runs, Year Wins, Distance & Grade.

Age - 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6.
Weight - All of the last 10 winners carried 11-01 or more.
Official Rating - All of the last 10 winners were rated 133 or higher.
Recent Runs - 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 in their last 2 starts.
Last Time Out - 8 of the last 10 winners had a break of at least 23 days before winning this.
Year Runs - 9 of the last 10 winners had 1 or 2 runs that year.
Year Wins - 6 of the last 10 winners won that year.
Distance - 8 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2m 4f or further.
Grade - 8 of the last 10 winners had previously run in a Graded Hurdle.


(5.30 Fri) Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase - 2m 1/2f

I have looked at 7 trends for this race, they are Age, Weight, Official Rating, Recent Runs, Last Time Out, Year Runs & Grade.

Age - All of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 & 9.
Weight - 7 of the last 10 winners carried 10-11 or more.
Official Rating - All of the last 10 winners were rated 150 or lower.
Recent Runs - 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 in 1 of their last 2 starts.
Last Time Out - 9 of the last 10 winners had a break of at least 27 days before winning this.
Year Runs - 9 of the last 10 winners had either not run on run once or twice that year.
Grade - 9 of the last 10 winners had previously run in a Graded Chase.

A summary in total -
Age - Only 4 horses from the last 40 winners in the handicaps were aged in double figures, 3 from 40 in Chases and 1 from 30 in Hurdles (1 race is for 4yo's)
Weight - 60 of the 100 winners carried 11-00 or more, 30 in Chases and 30 in Hurdles.
Recent Runs - 79 of the last 100 winners finished in the first 3 in 1 of their last 2 starts, 38/50 in Chases & 41/50 in Hurdles.
Looking at just their last run we see the following, 66 finished in the first 3 in their last run, 31 in Chases & 35 in Hurdles.
Last Time Out - 69 of the last 100 winners had their last run within the last 45 days, 37 in Chases & 32 in Hurdles.
Year Runs - 73 of the last 100 winners had run once or twice that year, 33 in Chases & 40 in Hurdles.
Grade - 61 of the last 100 winners had previously run in a Graded race in their sphere, 31 in Chases & 30 in Hurdles.

Updates with specific qualifiers will be provided at the 5-day and final stages.

Virus-free. www.avast.com

0 Comments