What Americans might step up in the Cup? @StateSideSix

(courtesy www.bobbaffert.com)

Breeders Cup entries were released yesterday and final declarations will be announced next week.  I have a good feel about who will be in or out of each race, so let's take a look at which American horses might run big on Day 1 (Friday) of the two-day festival.

Juvenile Turf Sprint:  European-based runners make up half of the 12-horse field, but one American name should be familiar to UK and Ireland racing fans - Shang Shang Shang. This is a classic Wesley Ward horse with tons of early speed who has been well rested after winning the Norfolk at Royal Ascot. She currently sits third in the markets at 6/1. Another plus is that she trains in Kentucky and will have a simple one hour van ride to Churchill Downs.  A second Ward trainee, Stillwater Cove, looks very good in this spot, especially at 25/1.  She didn't run well in the Albany, but return home to win a listed stakes at 5 1/2 furlongs.  An extended run at one mile didn't go well, but a return to a sprint distance makes her very dangerous.

Juvenile Fillies Turf:  American turf super-trainer Chad Brown has the current market favorite in Newspaperofrecord, but it's tough to say what she's beaten and tough to swallow odds of 9/4.  There are also six Europeans in this race, but an American who may run a big one is local horse Concrete Rose.  She has also won both of her starts, but you can get 8/1 right now which shows plenty of respect considering there are six European competitors.

Juvenile Fillies: There are no Europeans entered here and the field is rather unexciting.  I'm considering passing on this one, but, if you want a wager for viewing interest, you can do worse than Cassies Dreamer at 20/1.  Her trainer Barclay Tagg is an old-school and very conservative.  For him to send a two-year-old from New York to Kentucky tells me she has the talent. 

Juvenile Turf:  I think this race is going to be complete European domination. Five of the first six horses are UK or Ireland based and the American seem at their mercy. But, there are trifectas and superfectas so who might finish 3rd or 4th at big odds?  Either horse in the barn of local trainer Mike Maker is certainly capable:  Henley's Joy and Somelikeithotbrown.  In general, the mystery horse is The Black Album, recently purchased by Team Valor and kept in France with a small-time trainer. He was supposed to run in a G2 in France this month but skipped it and has been training at Chantilly.

Juvenile:  Again, no Europeans in this dirt race and the big trainers are represented. It would be safe to formulate wagers around horses trained by Baffert, Sadler and Asmussen.

Tomorrow:  a preview of the Saturday races